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Understanding the Current Investment Market Conditions at the End of 2024: What Expats in Singapore Need to Know

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As we approach the end of 2024, the global investment landscape has undergone significant changes influenced by a myriad of factors including economic recovery post-pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and advancements in technology. For expatriates, understanding these market conditions is crucial for making informed investment decisions. This article delves into the prevailing market trends, key considerations for expats, and strategic insights to navigate the investment landscape effectively.

Overview of Market Conditions

Global stock markets registered strong gains in Q1 amid a resilient US economy and ongoing enthusiasm around AI. Expectations of interest rate cuts also boosted shares although the pace of cuts is likely to be slower than that market had hoped for at the turn of the year. Bonds saw negative returns in the quarter.

Strength in some Asian markets helped emerging market equities outperform developed markets in Q2. Stocks related to the AI theme continued to perform strongly. The European Central Bank cut interest rates, but sticky inflation kept other major central banks on hold.

In Q3, global equities gained despite pronounced volatility on several occasions. Emerging markets performed strongly, supported by the announcement of new stimulus measures in China. Interest rate cuts in the quarter, and the prospect of more to come, helped fixed income markets to deliver solid returns.

A Republican/Trump win will bring about a sea of changes, but this would not be immediate and not everything hoped for by the winning party would eventually be put into motion. Furthermore, history has shown that the outcome of elections does not affect the long-term trajectory of markets, therefore it remains paramount to have a broad and diversified portfolio and not lean excessively into any “Trump themes” that may or may not happen in the future.

History has shown it is unwise to make significant adjustments based on political events. Market volatility is often based on speculation and not any change to fundamentals.

At times of heightened uncertainty, it is important to remain faithful to our investment principles and process.

  • In Q1’24, markets rose as corporate earnings came in better than expected while AI optimism continued. A less hawkish than expected stance from central banks also boosted sentiment and the Fed affirmed rate cuts in 2024.
  • Q2’24 started off with a pullback on uncertainly over the rates outlook and stronger than expected economic data, but later rallied through the rest of Q2’24 as the disinflation trend came back on track and as the ECB started its rate cut cycle.
  • Markets gained in Jul’24 as optimism from the continued disinflationary trend in the U.S. reinforcing expectations of further rate cuts in H2’24.
  • Aug’24 started with a significant pullback as weaker than expected U.S. jobs and manufacturing data raised fears of a recession, while the unwinding of the carry trade exacerbatedvolatility. Losses were pared as recent economic data pointed to economic moderation rather than weakness, while the Fed confirmed a rate cut in Sep’24.
  • Sep’24, historically one of the weakest months in the calendar year, initially saw a pullback as worries over an economic slowdown appeared to weigh on sentiment. Markets later rebounded as investors looked forward to the first Fed rate cut, where the Fed cut rates by 50 bps and projected two more 25 bps cut in Nov’24 & Dec’24.
  • Reflecting on Trump’s previous presidency, high yield bonds & stocks outperformed due to favourable policies, which were pro-business and pro-markets.
Economic Recovery and Growth

The global economy has shown signs of recovery, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting a growth rate of around 3.5% for 2024. This recovery has been uneven across regions, with advanced economies experiencing slower growth compared to emerging markets. Countries in Asia, particularly India and Southeast Asia, have emerged as hotspots for investment due to their young demographics and increasing consumer spending.

Inflation and Interest Rates

Inflation remains a pressing concern, particularly in developed nations like the United States and the European Union. Central banks have responded by adjusting interest rates, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious stance to balance growth and inflation. As of late 2024, interest rates are expected to stabilize, providing a more predictable environment for fixed-income investments.

Key Market Trends

Understanding the underlying trends is essential for expats looking to invest. Here are several key trends shaping the investment landscape:

Key Market Opportunities 2024/2025

  • We believe 2025 could be a year of relative clarity in global equity markets. The resolution of the US election and other key global elections has removed some critical policy question marks that had hampered investment, and pandemic-era shifts in supply chains have now solidified into a new post-Covid normal.
  • We expect a return to fundamentals in 2025, with the macro stories that dominated markets in 2024 giving way to a focus on companies’ individual strengths and weaknesses – this supports our ethos of global managers & active portfolio management.
  • In particular, the EM growth outlook is a relative bright spot in the global context, with disinflation, Chinese policy stimulus, and Fed rate cuts being supportive. Stock and currency market valuations remain undemanding.
  • Idiosyncratic trends within Emerging Markets imply scope of portfolio diversification too.
Fixed Income Outlook

During the third quarter, fixed income markets began to receive the policy rate cuts they had been craving for some time. Central banks had been reluctant to reduce rates too soon, as elements of inflation stickiness persisted across all major developed economies. This was particularly evident in the US and the UK, leading policymakers to maintain restrictive monetary policies. The European Central Bank was the first to cut rates, as Germany, the powerhouse of the European Union, continued to struggle with a range of economic headwinds. While some peripheral countries performed more strongly, this was overshadowed by ongoing concerns about the largest economy in Europe. The Bank of England followed with a modest 25-basis-point rate cut during the review period, despite pockets of inflationary pressure remaining in the UK economy. The Federal Reserve was the last major central bank to cut rates, announcing a 50-basis-point reduction at the end of September. This cut was larger than some commentators had expected and may have been designed to avoid any interference with the upcoming US Presidential election.
Yield differentials between sovereign bonds and their investment-grade and high-yield credit counterparts remained relatively compressed. Investors continued to be confident that the economic backdrop was sufficiently supportive of corporate borrowers, making any major shift in the default landscape unlikely in the short to medium term. Supply was generally well received, and, in a departure from historical norms, new issues were often priced at a tighter yield differential than the existing debt of the same issuer.

Considerations for Expat Investors

Expat investors face unique challenges and opportunities. Here are key considerations to keep in mind when investing in the current market:

Currency Fluctuations

Currency risk is a significant factor for expatriates investing abroad. Fluctuations in exchange rates can impact the value of investments and returns. It is advisable for expats to consider currency-hedged investment options or diversify their portfolios across multiple currencies to mitigate this risk.

Tax Implications

Understanding the tax implications of investing in a foreign country is crucial. Tax treaties between countries can significantly influence the tax burden on expatriates. Engaging with a tax advisor familiar with international tax laws can help expatriates optimise their investment strategies and ensure compliance.

Regulatory Environment

Investment regulations vary significantly across countries. Expat investors should familiarise themselves with the legal and regulatory landscape of their host country, including any restrictions on foreign ownership of assets. Consulting with local financial advisors can provide valuable insights into navigating these regulations.

Strategic Investment Approaches

To successfully navigate the current investment market conditions, expatriates should consider the following strategic approaches:

Diversification

Diversification remains a cornerstone of a sound investment strategy. Expats should aim to diversify their portfolios across various asset classes, including equities, fixed income, real estate, and alternative investments. This approach can help mitigate risks associated with market volatility.

Focus on Long-Term Goals

While short-term market fluctuations can be tempting, expats should remain focused on their long-term investment goals. A long-term perspective can help investors weather temporary downturns and capitalise on the growth potential of their investments over time.

Continuous Education and Adaptation

The investment landscape is constantly evolving. Expats should prioritise continuous education regarding market trends, economic indicators, and emerging investment opportunities. Staying informed can empower investors to make proactive adjustments to their portfolios.

As we conclude 2024, the investment market is filled with both opportunities and challenges. Expats must approach this landscape with a well-informed strategy, taking into account the current economic conditions, market trends, and unique considerations related to their expatriate status. By staying informed and adaptable, expatriate investors can position themselves to navigate the complexities of the investment world and achieve their financial objectives.

How To Be A Successful Investor!

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You may think that investing is not for you; maybe you’re not experienced enough, maybe you don’t have enough capital. But, the whole process of investing is not as scary as you think. Follow these simple tips and start investing successfully.

Start Before You’re Ready

This may seem counter-productive, but hear me out. Have you ever refrained from doing something, for fear of the risks? And then the thing you didn’t do, happened, and you regretted it? Hindsight is a fickle friend, so don’t miss an opportunity to start investing. Tackle your fear and start before you’re ready, because, to be honest, you will never be ready; “I’ll wait until next month…Let me do it after I’ve paid my bills…Maybe next year.” Take the plunge! If you don’t, you’ve already missed out on so much time you could have been investing.

Don’t Be Emotional

This point is crucial. You have to take all emotion out of investing, mainly fear and greed. If you see your investment plunging, your first response may be to sell, out of fear of losing even more. If you see stocks going up, you may want to buy before they go up higher, out of greed. Doing this eventually leads to buying high and selling low, losing you money in the long run.

  Instead, take advantage of dollar-cost averaging (the concept of buying the same amount at regular intervals). This method makes your investment almost robotic. Another thing you can do as well, is to make your payments into your investments automatic. Set up GIROs or transfer straight away after you get paid, so that you don’t even think about it.

Plan Situations In Advance

Another great tip is to have a set of ‘rules’ before you invest, so that if X was to happen, you already have a Y. For example, if you have a target buy price of a stock in mind, stick toit and do not deviate. This forward planning also helps you take emotion out of investing and manages your fear and greed.

Use Volatility To Your Advantage

Volatility is inevitable with investments, similar to if you go to a theme park you know there will be rollercoasters. A quality of a true investor is being able to hold onto their investments through times of great volatility. Even though it’s scary when investments go down, it’s not permanent. Stocks do not permanently lose their value. Use times of volatility to define your objectives, focus on what stocks are trending and always remember to be prepared for these situations. It’s all part of the game!

Do Some Homework!

Learn about the world around you; politics, technology, science, all have an effect on the financial world. Read up on current affairs and look out for things that could affect the economy and stock markets. The more you read, the more you will start to see trends in the market. I recommend reading The Economist, Business Insider and Bloomberg.

Know What Kind Of Investor You Want To Be

There are two types of investors; passive or active. Passive investors invest in mutual and index funds. If you’re unsure what these things are, check out my article “Investing Terms You Need To Know”. Passive investors benefit from long-term growing financial markets. Their investments are managed by fund managers, shuffling their money around for them on a regular basis. I would consider myself a passive investor; I leave the experts to do their job and just put my money in these funds over regular intervals. This, along with dollar-cost averaging, helps me remove my emotion from investing.

  An active investor has to be very committed, professional and knowledgeable in what they are doing. If you decide to be an active investor, do your research! Know which stocks you want to invest in and be prepared to keep an eye on them. Try to be robotic about it and apply the previous tips.

Have A Long Time Horizon

I’ve mentioned it before but an investor who holds onto their investments longer, usually benefits the most. While the stock market is often volatile over shorter periods of time, the economy generally grows year by year; the inflation rate in the US in 2010 was 1.64%. In 2021, it is currently 2.21%. While inflation rate is annoying in terms of making things more expensive, it is an indicator that the economy is doing well. A higher inflation rate means more spending, more demand for products and triggers more production to meet the demand.

  This means that if you hold onto your investments for longer, you are avoiding short-term losses and in turn benefitting from the growth of the economy.

To conclude, no one can be the perfect investor (if that was the case we’d all be rich), but if you follow these steps you are more likely to make better choices and become a successful investor!

Reddit Vs Wall Street

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Remember GameStop? That old shop where you would go to buy second hand video games? Well, yesterday they made big headlines…and here’s why.

Understanding a Short

  A short position is a trading technique, whereby short-sellers will borrow a stock that they think will drop in price, and buy them back at this lower price. Short sales have an expiration date- which means that sometimes short sellers have to act fast.

  A short squeeze occurs when the opposite happens; the stock sharply rises, forcing all those who predicted its downfall to buy to prevent even bigger losses. This inevitably drives the stocks even higher.  Short squeezes can happen when there is an unexpected positive news story (like Tesla, for example), or anything that can excite new buyers.

So what does that have to do with GameStop?

  In January 2021, a series of short squeezes ensued on several different stocks, including GameStop, AMC (remember, that cinema company?) and BlackBerry (everyone’s dream phone 15 years ago). Retail traders on Reddit page ‘Wallstreetbets’ banded together to drive the price of these stocks up, because they had found out that several hedge funds had short-sold them. This resulted in large price spikes, as the short-sellers were forced to buy back their stocks before incurring any more losses.

  Many users saw this as a way of getting back at hedge funds for the economic crisis in 2008. (Side note, if you haven’t watched The Big Short- you should. It explains the property crash perfectly.) It was almost as if all these users had become vigilantes, taking on the Big Bad Wall Street. Some on the website even donated their earnings to charity- how Robin Hood-esque of them.

Robinhood; take from the rich give to the…rich?

What’s not so Robin Hood-esque is what Robinhood did. Robinhood is a stock trading app; on Thursday 28th Jan 2021 it announced that it would block trading of GameShop, AMC and Blackberry shares. The free stock trading pioneer only allowed clients to sell positions, not open new ones. This provoked outrage among users and US politicians alike. A class- action lawsuit accused Robinhood of market manipulation and there are calls for the company to be investigated. The Senate banking committee said it would hold a hearing into the volatility.

  Many believe that this kind of move from Robinhood shows clear classism and bias in the financial world; that hedge funds in Wall Street can influence stock fluctuations, fat cats can reap the spoils of market volatility, but the average joe can’t. The users on Reddit merely played the short-sellers at their own game. What’s your opinion? Do you think that Robinhood was in the wrong? Or do you think that the stock market shouldn’t be manipulated by Reddit users?