Despite the doom and gloom you might hear in the news, the world economy is showing some grit, holding its own. This has given central banks a bit of wiggle room to tweak interest rates, which is good news for stocks, though not so much for gold. However, with the political scene being a tad unpredictable, gold remains a hot ticket item.

All That Glitters: Gold Market Buzz

The gold market is shifting gears. Its focus is moving from Chinese investment and central bank purchases towards anticipation of interest rate drops in Western economies. Gold prices are soaring, especially after the European Central Bank’s second rate cut. Traders in the futures market are hopeful, expecting lower interest rates, and the physical market is buzzing with investors seeking safer options.

However, history teaches us that interest rate cuts alone don’t guarantee a gold price surge. In the past, gold usually climbed only if rate cuts led to a recession, averaging a 15.5% increase within a year. If there was no recession post-cuts, gold prices typically fell by around 7%.

Stock Market Standouts

US stock markets have generally done well when the Federal Reserve cuts rates, especially if there’s no subsequent economic slump. Since the 1980s, the S&P 500 has averaged a 14.2% return in the year after initial cuts, outperforming the average return of 10.4% over the same period. This suggests that lower interest rates, without a corresponding recession, usually make for a good stock market environment.

While the economic backdrop looks positive, market ups and downs may persist due to uncertainties around the upcoming U.S. election and concerns of economic slowdown. However, these fluctuations might be a blip in a larger upward trend. So, long-term investors might want to keep their eye on U.S. large-cap growth stocks, which are likely to lead the charge in this bull market.

Emerging Markets: A Mixed Bag

Historically, when the Fed cuts rates, emerging market (EM) stocks tend to do well, especially if there’s no recession. However, the U.S. elections could sway the outlook for EM assets. Any protectionist policies could hit them hard. So, given the current uncertainties, it might be wise to hold off on heavy EM investment until the economic picture becomes clearer.

Data shows that after the first rate cut, EM stocks often outdo developed markets, especially if a recession is avoided. While initial performance might not show big differences, a clearer picture usually emerges about a quarter later as investors assess the economic landscape.

While EM stocks might not be a priority right now, EM bonds could offer good returns in this period, presenting potential investment opportunities amid U.S. growth concerns. Things might become clearer once election risks reduce and signs of economic stability appear.

The Fed & its Rate Cut

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point, the first reduction since early in the Covid pandemic, to prevent a slowdown in the labor market. Rates now range from 4.75% to 5%, impacting short-term borrowing costs for banks and consumer products like mortgages and loans. The committee plans further cuts, aiming for another full percentage point by the end of 2025 and a half point in 2026, despite a dissenting vote from Governor Michelle Bowman.

The cut seeks to restore price stability without increasing unemployment, which remains low at 4.2%. Although job gains have slowed and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.4%, inflation outlook has improved to 2.3%. The decision caused market volatility, with the Dow Jones fluctuating significantly.

Concerns persist about the labor market, as hiring rates have dropped, suggesting potential future rate cuts may vary among committee members. The Fed’s last rate reduction was in March 2020, followed by three increases due to inflation. While other central banks are cutting rates, the Fed continues to reduce its bond holdings, lowering its balance sheet to $7.2 trillion, down $1.7 trillion from its peak.

Investor Takeaway

Overall, the current environment looks good for stocks, though the U.S. presidential election could cause some market nerves. For gold, while the environment usually doesn’t favor price increases, it still holds an important place as a diversifier in uncertain times. As central banks tweak their strategies, investors should feel comfortable with the current rate cuts, while remembering that every cycle is unique, especially in our current politically charged world.